April 2026 witnessed the most complex phase since the beginning of the latest escalation on the Lebanese front. Following the shift during March toward an open war between Israel and Hezbollah, military operations during the first half of April entered a highly intensive phase marked by an expansion of Israeli strikes.

The month of March witnessed the confrontation shift from the level of localized strikes in southern Lebanon—and at times in the Bekaa Valley and Beirut’s southern suburbs—within what Israel had described as its “freedom of action” against Hezbollah in Lebanon, to what could be described as an open war between Israel and Hezbollah.

The month of February 2026 witnessed the continuation of the limited-engagement pattern along the Lebanese front, without any major qualitative shift in the nature of the confrontation. Israeli strikes remained within the framework of near-daily, limited-scale pressure, consisting of scattered airstrikes...

The month of January 2026 witnessed a marked increase in the pace of Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory, accompanied by intensifying domestic political debate, particularly over the weapons of Hezbollah and the role of the state, amid sharp divisions among political forces.

The beginning of December 2025 witnessed a noticeable increase in security tensions along the southern front, coinciding with mounting international pressure to push forward a negotiation process within the framework of the “Mechanism” committee:::

October 2025 witnessed a marked escalation in the political confrontation surrounding Hezbollah’s weapons, with this confrontation moving from media and political debate into concrete government actions.

September 2025 marked a qualitative shift in the Lebanese scene. Discussions surrounding Hezbollah’s weapons moved from theoretical debate to the level of executive decision-making — as reflected in the Lebanese Army’s proposal, presented at a Government session.

In addition to the near-daily targeting of Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon—which Hezbollah is keen to avoid portraying in the media as direct strikes against its personnel or positions—this month was marked by a prominent debate over Hezbollah’s weapons...

According to various media reports, the American proposal carried by envoy Thomas Barrack focused on consolidating all weapons in Lebanon under state authority, with binding timelines that most press accounts suggested should not extend beyond the end of the year.